The future of social networks

Before I read Christakis`s and Fowler`s recently published book “Connected – the amazing power of social networks and how they shape our lives” my first thought was “Oh no, no more book on social networks” as I associated social networks with Facebook, Twitter and all the well-meant advices on how to become more visible on the internet. Luckily, the authors chose a different approach.

The book is based on several studies conducted in recent years on how social networks influence the spread of news, norms, politics, diseases and behavior – in other words, it is based on facts and not on speculations. That makes it both more scientific and reliable. The authors show several kinds of network structures ranging from the bucket brigade with only two mutual ties to more woven networks containing more than a hundred ties. They also explain the difference between integrated and concentrated networks when managing change.

According to Christakis and Fowler social networks are always based on connections and contagion and this is the reason why the whole is always greater than the sum of its parts. In Christakis`s and Fowler`s approach the structure of networks and how each person is embedded in it (at the center or at random) is crucial for how much influence a network can make. Even the transitivity of persons is important for how problems should be addressed and how possible solutions could be performed. Christakis and Fowler argue: Transitivity can affect everything from whether you find a sexual partner to whether you commit suicide.

The book contains several studies that support this thesis and Christakis and Fowler are two acknowledged thinkers. The book has given me many new insights and perspectives on how to look at social networks in a different way, especially when I think about social entrepreneurship in developing countries. As I am volunteering for the Hunger Project in Sweden I like process-oriented work where we identify influential individuals who encourage their social networks to manage the switch from poverty to self-reliance by themselves. Networking is a crucial factor for success. Once a critical mass of people makes a decision, the rest of the group goes along. Each member wants to become an achiever. As Christakis and Fowler put it: A more effective approach in the future will be to focus on the architecture of a person`s social network, namely the structural position rather than the socioeconomic position. Campaigns would be most effective if messages were directed at high-activity members (the cores or the hubs of the network) rather than targeted equally to all members of a community.

By the way, regarding Facebook Christakis and Fowler also find out that we averagely have 150 friends in online social networks and just four close friends in our private core network. Yet, social network-sites do offer new opportunities.

Study on car fleet renewal gave astonishing results

The International Transport Forum, an intergovernmental think tank, recently published a study on car fleet renewal scheme in three countries. The study was conducted to measure the impact of governmental incentives in the US, Germany and France (all car friendly nations with a production of cars) which aimed to trade old cars for newer ones hoping that this will stimulate both sustainability and the car industry.
Now, 2 years later, a first study is published that evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the car renewal from a sustainable and social point of view. Factors like CO2 and NOx (nitrogen oxides) emissions as well as road safety are measured.

The study, however, didn`t give the results the politicians had hoped for. One could have expected that newer cars caused less pollution and reduced the risk of traffic accidents, in other words achieving a positive cost-effectiveness. That is true in the short term but in the long run the positive aspects diminish.

The study shows that a lot of consumers have traded their old small car in favor to a new medium-sized one. Bigger cars need more fuel and cause higher air pollution. As the new car is more comfortable consumers spend more time travelling and road safety per car decreases. Logically, both CO2 and NOx-emissions increase. Taking a look on the cost-effectiveness shows, of course, negative values, too.

What did the government miss? They forgot to take into account a changed consumer pattern and the rebound effect on emissions in the long term. Given incentives on new cars no matter car-size makes buying small cars less attractive. The car is at first a status symbol, not an environment symbol.
Giving incentives on car renewal needs chance management, as it is a process with many parts involved. Consumers need a pathway on how they can contribute. To put it that way like the Heath-brothers did in their book: direct the rider – motivate the elephant – shape the path. It reminds me on an initiative at my job recently. We reduced the number of cars and bought some bicycles instead. A very good initiative besides the fact that the bicycles haven`t been used often. People are lazy and find many reasons to take the car. Maybe a competition of who used the bikes most combined with a spa-weekend for the winner could have made the switch. Point out the direction and make it attractive.