The International Transport Forum, an intergovernmental think tank, recently published a study on car fleet renewal scheme in three countries. The study was conducted to measure the impact of governmental incentives in the US, Germany and France (all car friendly nations with a production of cars) which aimed to trade old cars for newer ones hoping that this will stimulate both sustainability and the car industry.
Now, 2 years later, a first study is published that evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the car renewal from a sustainable and social point of view. Factors like CO2 and NOx (nitrogen oxides) emissions as well as road safety are measured.
The study, however, didn`t give the results the politicians had hoped for. One could have expected that newer cars caused less pollution and reduced the risk of traffic accidents, in other words achieving a positive cost-effectiveness. That is true in the short term but in the long run the positive aspects diminish.
The study shows that a lot of consumers have traded their old small car in favor to a new medium-sized one. Bigger cars need more fuel and cause higher air pollution. As the new car is more comfortable consumers spend more time travelling and road safety per car decreases. Logically, both CO2 and NOx-emissions increase. Taking a look on the cost-effectiveness shows, of course, negative values, too.
What did the government miss? They forgot to take into account a changed consumer pattern and the rebound effect on emissions in the long term. Given incentives on new cars no matter car-size makes buying small cars less attractive. The car is at first a status symbol, not an environment symbol.
Giving incentives on car renewal needs chance management, as it is a process with many parts involved. Consumers need a pathway on how they can contribute. To put it that way like the Heath-brothers did in their book: direct the rider – motivate the elephant – shape the path. It reminds me on an initiative at my job recently. We reduced the number of cars and bought some bicycles instead. A very good initiative besides the fact that the bicycles haven`t been used often. People are lazy and find many reasons to take the car. Maybe a competition of who used the bikes most combined with a spa-weekend for the winner could have made the switch. Point out the direction and make it attractive.
